How Low Can It Go?

The New York Times reports that New York City’s homicide rate is poised to reach one of the all time lows since standardized reporting statistics became available in 1963. If this year’s trend continues, the city should keep the number of murders under five-hundred, or a little over one a day. Significant is the fact that of the five-hundred or less murdered at the end of this year, less than one-hundred of the victims will have not personally known his/her attacker. The remaining deaths will have been committed by relatives, friends, or rival gang-members. After a certain point, it is thought that lowering the murder rate any further may be nearly impossible, as most attacks will take place in non-public places between individuals who know each other. Keeping the homicide numbers so low also assumes that the local and national economies don’t tank, stressing city finances, services, and social relations (or the city experiences another drug-epidemic like that of crack cocaine), spurring the kind of rise seen during the 1970s and 1980s.

The city’s murder rate has been dipping since the high of 2,245 in 1990. Mayor David Dinkins’ policies helped spur the decline (contrary to the perception that Rudy Giuliani single-handedly tamed violent crime–a perception he seems more than happy to circulate). Dinkins’ “Safe Streets, Safe City” tax surcharge of 1991 provided the funds necessary to hire 6,000 more police personnel and community policing practices were introduced. During Dinkins’ administration, from 1990 to 1993, murders in New York City dropped almost 14 percent.